The New Reality of Religious Voters

One of the most widely known axioms in modern politics is the belief in the “God Gap” which says, essentially, that the higher the frequency of church attendance, the higher the likelihood a person will vote Republican. Essentially it has declared Republicans as the party of the faithful and Democrats as the secular or athiest party.

Democrats have tried in recent years to reach out to religious voters in far more concrete ways, from forming a Faith in Action office in the DNC, to specialty political consulting firms forming to help Democrats do faith outreach. Candidates like Heath Shuler in North Carolina and Ted Strickland in Ohio were undeniably helped by this type of religious outreach and GOTV.

A recent study by the Henry Institute at Calvin College now reveals how the 2008 political religious map looks, and has some surprising and interesting findings about both religious voters partisanship and their evolving views on social issues. What’s also nice is how this study breaks voters down (unlike exit polls) by not just religious denomination but also orthodoxy. This is the type of study Democratic strategist should be looking at as they prepare their outreach.  

The first point to take is that Evangelical partisanship has not changed in the last four years (still a 29% GOP advantage) and, though stagnating, has widened significantly since 1992.

This group, which represents a little more than a quarter of the electorate favored the Republican Party over the Democratic Party 48 percent to 32 percent in 1992, but now leans Republican 54 percent to 25 percent.

Republican’s now have this quarter-sized voting bloc firmly wrapped up, and the Democrats have thus far proved ineffective in their outreach. (Though it is perhaps a small victory that the gap has not widened.)

Better news: Mainline Protestants, about 20% of the electorate, have made a massive swing to the left. Alienated by the extremism of the Religious Right, Mainlines are for the first time in modern history, siding with the Democrats.

Historically, Mainline Protestants have been the mainstay of the Republican coalition.  Even as late as 1992, Mainline Protestants were heavily Republican in their partisan identifications (50 percent Republican to 32 percent Democratic). But, in 2008, Mainline Protestants are for the first time since at least the beginning of the New Deal more Democratic than Republican in their partisan identifications (46 percent to 37 percent, respectively).

Roman Catholics, again about a quarter of the electorate are again the ultimate swing vote. Catholics have sided with the popular vote winner in every presidential election since Truman.

In 2008, a plurality of non-Hispanic Catholics remain Democratic in their partisan identifications-but only barely so.  As a result, non-Hispanic Roman Catholics (whose total numbers are similar to that of Mainline Protestants) continue to remain the largest religious tradition most evenly divided in their partisan inclinations and most likely to be “up for grabs” in the 2008 presidential election (38 percent Republican; 41 percent Democratic).

Now there is a growing theory that there really is no Catholic vote. The argument goes that Catholics tend to vote along socio-economic lines (or ethnic lines) but their vote is rarely directly tied to their Catholicism. It is important to note here though that those self-identifying as traditional Catholics due side with Republicans.

On social issues there is again mixed news for the Dems. Since 2004, the support for environmental regulation has dropped. This is surprising with the recent “Creation-Care” theology of leaders like Rev. Richard Cizik and Joel Hunter. Younger evangelicals too have been thought to have been better on the environment. I tend to agree with Mark Silk who said,

The explanation has to do, I think, with the way the question is asked: “Strict rules to protect the environment are necessary even if they cost jobs or result in higher prices.” In other words, less support for environmental regulation may simply reflect higher economic anxieties…and not all groups show this tendency. Jews, Blacks, and Latinos all have become more environmentalist, by modest amounts, and the unaffiliated, by a hefty amount. Atheists and Agnostics are not the most pro-environment group in the country, at 81 percent. Environmentalism is their religion.

Allowing a woman to solely decide on abortion is supported by 53 percent of the entire religious sample, as opposed to 40 percent against. And by a margin of 47 percent to 41 percent, respondents do not agree that gays and lesbians should be permitted to marry legally. Surprisingly for some, Catholics support abortion rights 51-43, and are almost evenly split on gay marriage, 43 percent against and 45 percent for. It is this growing demographic change on gay marriage that should certainly frighten social conservatives (although studies show that young people are more pro-life than their parents.

Finally only one group now fully supports the US Occupation of Iraq: evangelicals, 57 percent to 35 percent. Among them, the traditionalists support our having gone to war 64-27, while centrist and modernist evangelicals are barely in favor. All other groups are opposed. One could argue that the question of Iraq is now a religious question, with only the most conservative Christians supporting it. John McCain will win the far religious right vote with his saber-rattling with Iran and Iraq, however he risks losing the moderate Evangelical vote if he overplays his hand. Moderate evangelicals are in play for Obama in this election.